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EUR/USD Outlook July 16-20

| July 16, 2012 | 0 Comments

Euro/dollar experienced from another poor weeks time, losing to levels last seen in over 2 decades. An essential In german study is the emphasize this weeks time, as statements from the financial debt disaster proceed taking over the landscape. Here is an perspective for the future activities and an modified specialized research for EUR/USD.

While euro-zone fund ministers did make some advance in offering aid for The country, there is still much to be preferred. Legalities in Malaysia could wait the use of bailout funds permanently. The country revealed everyone that the lender bailout does not really miss the sovereign, and declared a large austerity program. However, also this did not reduced Real language makes and just harm the money. In the US, the FOMC minutes revealed that the hunger for publishing dollars is not great. All this can handle more drops. Will the money proceed farming lower? Or are we set for a correction?

Updates: Euro-zone and German Business Account balances both seemed distinct. The Euro-zone Business Stability hit 6.3 million, well above the industry calculate of 4.8B. Tuscany revealed a extra of 1.01B, amazing the marketplaces, which had expected a lack of 0.97B. Euro-zone CPI and Primary CPI published parts of 2.4% and 1.6%, respectively. Both results equalled the industry reports. In german ZEW Financial Feeling, a key signal, will be launched on Wednesday. The marketplaces are again referring to a possible QE3 in the US, following a poor UoM Customer Feeling launch the other day. Fed head Bernanke will be testifying before a United states chair for economic council Panel later this weeks time. The money is down to begin the dealing weeks time, losing below the 1.22 range. EUR/USD was dealing at 1.2190.

EUR/USD daily data with assistance and level of resistance collections on it. Click to enlarge:
CPI: Thursday, 9:00. The yearly speed of cost increases is progressively losing returning to the 2% focus on in the euro-zone. The Western Central Financial institution just didn’t wait and already cut the prices. The first calculate for the Customer Price Catalog in May was standing on 2.4%, and this will probably be verified now. Primary CPI is expected to be 1.6%.
Trade Balance: Thursday, 9:00. Thanks to Germany’s large trade extra, the rest of the euro-zone also loves a positive extra, that was standing on 6.2 million before. A similar determine is expected now.
German ZEW Financial Sentiment: Wednesday, 9:00. This is one of the most essential forward looking signs for Malaysia. When it turned negative last month, the money sensed it. Another little fall is expected from last month’s -16.9 factors. The all-European variety will probably stay around last month’s -20.1 factors.
Finnish parliament talks about Real language bailout: Saturday. The south country has not been too thinking about the Ancient and Real language plans, challenging security at each level. Lately, Finland’s Finance Reverend suggested that they would leave the euro-zone, neglecting to pay others’ financial debt. The controversy in parliament will likely be warmed, and might contain new obstructions for aid. Markets will stone.
Current Account: Saturday, 8:00. This is a broader determine than the trade balance, as it also takes services, cash and different moves into consideration. The extra of 4.6 million will likely be followed by a smaller one now.
German PPI: Saturday, 6:00. The fall in In german blowing up was one of the factors that allowed the ECB to cut the prices. Manufacturer prices dropped in May (-0.3%) for at the first try since Jan. Another little fall is expected now.

* All times are GMT

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

€/$started the weeks time with a little restoration effort, but this met the 1.2330 range (mentioned last week). From there, it was all down as the couple progressively lost floor, getting close to the critical 1.2150 range.

Technical collections from top to bottom:

We begin from reduced floor now. 1.2623 is the past 2012 low and continues to be essential despite latest combat over this range. Below, 1.2587 is a obvious base on the every week maps but is only a slight range now.

1.2520 had an essential part in having the couple during May, in more than one case, but it’s much sluggish now. 1.2440 offered assistance for the couple simultaneously. and proved helpful as dual base.

It is carefully followed by 1.24 that offered some level of resistance in May 2010 and moved to level of resistance in September. 1.2360 was short-term assistance in September 2012 but quickly moved to level of resistance.

Further below, 1.2330 is another traditional range after being the trough following the international financial disaster in 2008. It proven its strength by capping a restoration effort in September 2012. The now past 2012 low of 1.2288 is of higher significance now after being achieved twice.

1.22 is a circular an essential range that offered as assistance returning in May 2010. 1.2150 is already a very strong range on the downside: it was a obvious separator two decades ago, when Portugal obtained its first bailout.

Next we have the 1.20 range, which is a circular emotional determine. The post disaster low of 1.1876 is the final frontier before collections last seen in the good decades.

1.17 was the discharge value of EUR/USD in 1999 and is of ancient value. The circular variety of 1.15 is already more essential after it offered as assistance in the mid 2000s.

I stay bearish on EUR/USD

Nothing has been fixed in the EU Peak or the Eurogroup conference. The country is walking the same deceased end path of severe austerity, and Tuscany may also need some help soon. Both these large nations are experiencing not sustainable great makes for too long. After the latest reduction of the down payment rate by the ECB, money carries on streaming out of European nations.

In the US, the situation is combined. For example, unemployment statements dropped dramatically, but another determine preferred by Bernanke reveals that job growth has essentially delayed. This environment is perfect for the dollar: the US is not a international train engine, therefore not motivating risk. So, the money is a safe home. On the other hand, factors are not bad enough to induce QE3 that will decrease the value of the money. Unless there is something totally amazing, there is more room on the disadvantage for EUR/USD, in a constant move.

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