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USD/CAD Outlook July 16-20

| July 16, 2012 | 0 Comments

The North america money complicated along, enjoying the relative durability of oil, neglecting European countries for a modify, but suffering from no hints of QE3 from the US. The end result is a fall in USD/CAD. North america amount choice and blowing up information are the primary events this weeks time. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an modified specialized research for USD/CAD.

Last weeks time Canada’s trade lack suddenly extended in May to C$793 thousand from C$623 thousand in Apr, in the midst of a improve of imports while exporters stayed the same due to the Western financial disaster. Meanwhile the real estate sector grew even larger with an annualized variety of 223,000 new residential designs in May well above the 203,000 predicted by experts and New Housing Price Index surrounded up 0.3% above the 0.2% predicted. Will North america economy get over global industry effects?

Updates: International Investments Buys will be released later on Friday. The markets are expecting a much more powerful reading than in May. The loonie is steady, as USD/CAD was dealing at 1.0150.

USD/CAD daily chart with assistance and level of resistance collections on it. Click to enlarge:
Foreign Investments Purchases: Friday, 12:30. International traders enhanced their products in Apr to a net 10.16 thousand North america dollars following a brief decrease if 2.4 thousand in the prior 30 days. The improve could be taken into account by the scarceness of multiple A rating countries. International traders marketed C$941 thousand of North america shares while Canadians marketed a net C$2.68 thousand of foreign securities. A further improve to 13.51 thousand is anticipated.
Manufacturing Sales: Wednesday, 12:30. North america production revenue reduced 0.8% in Apr to $49.1 thousand. The primary decreases took place at aerospace item and parts industry and the oil and fossil fuel item industry, while revenue of automobiles increased to the highest level since Nov 2007. A gain of 0.7% is expected.
Rate decision: Wednesday, 13:00. The Bank of North america kept its instantaneously amount of 1.0% in the midst of a slightly more slowly than predicted amount of development in the first quarter of 2012. although the overall business activities is generally consistent with estimated objectives. The Western debt disaster and reducing in emerging industry financial systems such as China, South america, and Indian present downside risks on North america future development leads. No modify is predicted, especially after the good job figures.
Wholesale Sales: Friday, 12:30. Sales among businesses improved at the fastest pace in almost a season in Apr climbing 1.5% after a 0.3% development of the past 30 days. The improve was led by a boost of 48.5% in demand for farming resources while personal and household goods reduced 2.2% on reduced revenue in the medication and pharmacy resources industry. A improve of 0.2% is predicted.
Inflation data: Friday, 12:30. Rate of blowing up reduced suddenly in May by 0.1% following a 0.4% improve in Apr reducing annual blowing up from 2.0 percent last time to just 1.2%. Meanwhile Primary blowing up taking out food and energy prices improved 0.2% after a 0.4% development of the past 30 days. Both Primary CPI and CPI are required to fall 0.1% .

* All periods are GMT.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

Dollar/C$ made a small shift and gradually tried to get over the 1.0245 variety (mentioned last week). This just didn’t work out, and the couple gradually tumbled down, closing at 1.0138.

Technical collections, from top to bottom:

1.0750 was the optimum of ranges several periods in modern periods, and is a very important variety. 1.0660 was last seen in Sept 2011, but this variety was also a long term shift great several periods beforehand.

1.0523 was a optimum returning in Nov and is slight level of resistance. 1.0460 to cap it the couple in May 2012 and also had a slight part in past times. It is now advanced level of resistance.

1.0360 was a critical variety in May 2012 and is now considerable level of resistance. It proved its durability in May 2012. The circular variety of 1.03 was level of resistance at the starting of the season and now returns to this part. It proved helpful perfectly well during May – over and over again, until finally being run through.

1.0245 provided as a separator for the shift up when the couple rallied in May 2010 and regains some durability now, thanks to capping the couple in September 2012. The circular figure of 1.02 was a support when the couple reduced in Nov, and also the 2009 trough. It is now becoming more powerful once again after avoiding a development of September.

1.0150 was a shift low in Sept and proved helpful as level of resistance several periods afterwards. It was pushed in May 2012. and provided as a separator in September 2012. This remains a key variety to watch.

Just above equality, 1.0030 to cap it the couple twice in April 2012 but is sluggish now after working only temporarily in May. The very circular variety of USD/CAD equality is a clear variety of course, and the battle is restored after the latest climb.

Under equality, we meet another critical variety at 0.9950. It provided as a top boundary to variety dealing in April 2012 and later as a variety in the middle of the variety.

0.99, the circular variety is now present on the information after capping the couple in May 2012. 0.9840 provided assistance for the couple during Sept and was reduced to a slight variety now.

Lower, 0.9725 proved helpful as powerful assistance returning at the fall of 2011. The last variety for now is 0.9667, which was another powerful support in past times.

Downtrend Channel

As you can see on the information, the couple is dealing in a downwards route that began at the starting of May. Downtrend assistance is more considerable than downtrend level of resistance. The route is constantly on the hold.

I remain bearish on USD/CAD.

Canada remains relatively powerful, and the latest neglecting of Western troubles is a very good sign for the loonie. With oil remaining constant and even moving higher, there are leads for more loonie durability – more falls for USD/CAD.

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Category: USD/CAD FORECAST, WEEKLY FORECASTS

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