USD/CAD Outlook August 6-10

| August 5, 2012 | 0 Comments

USD/CAD achieved equality but can’t near below this stage in a nervous weeks time, after it shifted off downtrend assistance. Will the couple continue south? Ivey PMI, Business Stability and career claims are the emphasize of this weeks time. Here is an outlook on the significant market-movers and an modified specialized research for USD/CAD.

Last weeks time Canada’s gdp dissatisfied with 0.1% development of May after growing 0.3% in Apr, amongst small profits in retail trade and the financial industry. Overall manufacturing decreased 0.5% and development also dropped by 0.2%. Economic experts expected a 0.2% amount of development. Is this a short-term backslide or a starting of a downside trend?

USD/CAD daily data with assistance and stage of resistance collections on it. Click to enlarge:
Building Permits: Wednesday, 12:30. The value of North america developing allows increased by 7.4% in May from a 4.4% decrease in Apr reaching the highest stage in five decades. The increase was well beyond forecasts of a 0.7% improve and took place due to a variety of development plans for institutional buildings and for multi-family real estate in the Western region of the country. A drop of 3.5% is expected now.
Ivey PMI: Wednesday, 14:00. – The North america Ivey Buying Professionals Catalog, delved suddenly to49.0 in May after reaching60.5 in May showing shrinkage in purchasing power. On a annually base Ivey PMI (NSA) was 19.2 reduced than in May 2011. An enhancement to 51.7 is expected now.
Housing Starts: Saturday, 12:15. North america annualized amount of real estate begins hopped suddenly in May to 223,000 from217,000 in May, amongst multiple urban begins in Quebec, canada, andBritish Mexico. Experts expected a 203,000 annualized amount. In mild of the development pattern in the real estate industry North america government decided to stiffen conditions for both home buyers and mortgage companies to prevent the development of a percolate ready to burst North america annualized amount of real estate begins is forecaste to reach 212,000.
Trade Balance: Saturday, 12:30.Canada’s trade lack suddenly increased to C$793 thousand from C$623 thousand in Apr amongst a 0.4% boost in imports while exporters barely increased in mild of the European debt crisis. Falling oil costs added to the lack improve since North america is a significant exporter of energy products. A further increase to C$900 is expected now.
NHPI : Saturday, 12:30. The New real estate price index (NHPI) increased 0.3% from 30 days to 30 days in May, after a 0.2% development of Apr and above the 0.2% improve expected by analysts. The main improve took place in Sudbury and Magic Bay while decreases were registered in Victoria (-0.8%) and Charlottetown (-0.4%). Another improve of 0.4% is anticipated.
Employment data: Saturday, 12:30. North america companies employed 7,300 workers in May following a 7,700 improve in the previous 30 days. The variety of part-time tasks decreased 22,000, replaced by full-time roles which increased by 29,300. Meanwhile lack of employment amount dropped slightly from 7.3% to 7.2% in May showing an enhancement in the North america Job industry. An addition of 10,200 new tasks is expected with a increase to 7.3% in lack of employment amount.

* All periods are GMT.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

Dollar/CAD started the weeks time above the 1.0030 variety (mentioned last week) before creating recurring efforts on equality. Only after rising greater, the drop that followed found the couple momentarily below equality, before closing at 1.0009.

Technical collections, from top to bottom:

1.0750 was the optimum of ranges several periods in modern periods, and is a very essential variety. 1.0660 was last seen in Sept 2011, but this variety was also a long term shift great several periods beforehand.

1.0523 was a optimum returning in Nov and is slight stage of resistance. 1.0460 to cap it the couple in May 2012 and also had a slight part in previous times. It is now advanced stage of resistance.

1.0360 was a critical variety in May 2012 and is now considerable stage of resistance. It proved its durability in May 2012. The circular variety of 1.03 was stage of resistance at the starting of the season and now profits to this part. It proved helpful perfectly well during May – over and over again, until finally being run through.

1.0245 provided as a separator for the shift up when the couple rallied in May 2010 and regains some durability now, thanks to capping the couple in Sept 2012, twice during this 30 days The circular figure of 1.02 was a support when the couple decreased in Nov, and also the 2009 trough. It remains a unique separator after working as such in Sept.

1.0150 was a shift low in Sept and proved helpful as stage of resistance several periods afterwards. It was pushed in May 2012. and provided as a separator in Sept 2012.

1.0066 was key assistance before equality. It’s durability during Sept 2012 was clearly seen and it gave a fight before giving up. Now, it is somewhat sluggish. 1.0030 is another variety of defense before equality after capping the couple earlier in the season. The shift below this variety is not verified yet.

The very circular variety of USD/CAD equality is a obvious variety of course, and the battle was very obvious to see at the starting of Aug 2012. Under equality, we meet another critical variety at 0.9950. It provided as a top boundary to variety dealing in Goal 2012 and later as a variety in the middle of the variety.

0.99, the circular variety is now present on the information after capping the couple in May 2012. 0.9840 provided assistance for the couple during Sept and was reduced to a slight variety now.

Lower, 0.9725 proved helpful as powerful assistance returning at the drop of 2011. The last variety for now is 0.9667, which was another powerful support in previous times.

Downtrend Channel

As you can see on the information, the couple is dealing in a downwards route that began at the starting of May. The couple shifted off downtrend assistance towards the end of the weeks time, creating it even more essential. Downtrend assistance is more considerable than downtrend stage of resistance. It’s worth noting that the couple is near to returning up now.

I remain bearish on USD/CAD.

Even if the positive outlook in European countries towards massive ECB connection buying ends, Canada’s basic principles certainly assistance it: greater demand from the US that experienced a good tasks report, greater oil costs and an economy that continues growing. Employment is critical.

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